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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 1/10/17 @ BUF
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Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jan 10 @ 8:59 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 1/10/17 @ BUF
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Jan 10 @ 9:02 AM ET
Big game tonight. Need these two points.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 10 @ 9:04 AM ET
Have my money on Neuvirth
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 10 @ 9:11 AM ET
They better win!!!!
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jan 10 @ 9:13 AM ET
Big game tonight.
- Streit2ThePoint


The biggest.

Need these two points.
- Streit2ThePoint


These are most important 2 points of the season.
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Jan 10 @ 9:16 AM ET
That earlier home game was fun. Turning to my coworker that was with me and saying when down 3-0. This ain't over. Just score this power play. Then score shortly before 2 minutes left. Pull the goalie and we're right back in it.

Well it was faster than that they came back thanks to Buffalo going braindead and taking penalties but what a comeback to see live.

Hopefully it is a little easier tonight. Neuvy comes back to haunt one of his old teams?

Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 10 @ 9:17 AM ET
ttt
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 10 @ 9:17 AM ET
In NHL Legacy (16), I was able to sign Keith Yandle to a 5-year deal worth north of $6M, then trade him early in the season for Ristolainen (4 years, $2.75M), a 2nd, and a 3rd.

Why Hexy can't make simple moves like this boggles my mind.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 10 @ 9:17 AM ET
Have my money on Neuvirth
- YuenglingJagr


What's the over/under?
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 10 @ 9:18 AM ET
troika
- bmeltzer


I'd bet a lot of money that no other writer/blogger here has that word in their arsenal.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 10 @ 9:19 AM ET
I'd bet a lot of money that no other writer/blogger here has that word in their arsenal.
- Scoob


Has Sam Hinkie started to blog here yet?
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jan 10 @ 9:29 AM ET
Has Sam Hinkie started to blog here yet?
- jmatchett383


Sam is way too busy shifting paradigms and realizing synergy to write blogs.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 10 @ 9:30 AM ET
So, was looking at Ovechkin's goals. He's 31, and has 544 goals. If he stays healthy, let's say his goal scoring production declines by 5% every year and his production continues for this year and see how his totals look at the end of each season:

2017: 38 (582)
2018: 36 (618)
2019: 34 (652)
2020: 32 (684)
2021: 30 (714)
2022: 28 (742)
2023: 26 (768)
2024: 24 (792)
2025: 22 (814)

This would make him 39 and puts him second all-time to Gretzky. Do you think the numbers are realistic?
Ur Not Me
New York Islanders
Location: Long Island, NY
Joined: 11.30.2008

Jan 10 @ 9:33 AM ET
Whos in G tonight..???
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jan 10 @ 9:35 AM ET
The end of the Boyd Gordon era could be upon us if we can just get thru one more game without another injury.

Have my money on Neuvirth


Buffalo gonna get Vezina'd by a backup who used to play for them.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 10 @ 9:36 AM ET
So, was looking at Ovechkin's goals. He's 31, and has 544 goals. If he stays healthy, let's say his goal scoring production declines by 5% every year and his production continues for this year and see how his totals look at the end of each season:

2017: 38 (582)
2018: 36 (618)
2019: 34 (652)
2020: 32 (684)
2021: 30 (714)
2022: 28 (742)
2023: 26 (768)
2024: 24 (792)
2025: 22 (814)

This would make him 39 and puts him second all-time to Gretzky. Do you think the numbers are realistic?

- jmatchett383


I was talking to my friend about Oveckin early in the season. It is crazy to me that his shooting percentage has never been above 14.6%. Granted that isn't a low shooting percentage, but it has been so consistent throughout his career. If he ever had some insane year where he shot 17% he could hit 70. I doubt it will happen, but fun to think about.

I dont think a decline would be 5% each year, but it could average out to that. Not sure he plays until 39 with how he throws himself around though
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 10 @ 9:37 AM ET
[quote=Feanor]
lets just leave him in Buffalo "by accident"

Maybe stuff him in a barrel and send him over
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jan 10 @ 9:39 AM ET
So, was looking at Ovechkin's goals. He's 31, and has 544 goals. If he stays healthy, let's say his goal scoring production declines by 5% every year and his production continues for this year and see how his totals look at the end of each season:

2017: 38 (582)
2018: 36 (618)
2019: 34 (652)
2020: 32 (684)
2021: 30 (714)
2022: 28 (742)
2023: 26 (768)
2024: 24 (792)
2025: 22 (814)

This would make him 39 and puts him second all-time to Gretzky. Do you think the numbers are realistic?

- jmatchett383


The only fly in the ointment might be Ovi, himself. He may not want to play that long.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 10 @ 9:43 AM ET
I was talking to my friend about Oveckin early in the season. It is crazy to me that his shooting percentage has never been above 14.6%. Granted that isn't a low shooting percentage, but it has been so consistent throughout his career. If he ever had some insane year where he shot 17% he could hit 70. I doubt it will happen, but fun to think about.

I dont think a decline would be 5% each year, but it could average out to that. Not sure he plays until 39 with how he throws himself around though

- YuenglingJagr


It's probably consistent because he always has the largest sample size every year.

That goal he scored last night was ridiculous. Looked like he was just sweeping the puck on net and he fires it past Price. There isn't a player on earth who scores a goal like that other than him.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jan 10 @ 9:43 AM ET
In NHL Legacy (16), I was able to sign Keith Yandle to a 5-year deal worth north of $6M, then trade him early in the season for Ristolainen (4 years, $2.75M), a 2nd, and a 3rd.

Why Hexy can't make simple moves like this boggles my mind.

- jmatchett383



I know right?!
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 10 @ 9:44 AM ET
I was talking to my friend about Oveckin early in the season. It is crazy to me that his shooting percentage has never been above 14.6%. Granted that isn't a low shooting percentage, but it has been so consistent throughout his career. If he ever had some insane year where he shot 17% he could hit 70. I doubt it will happen, but fun to think about.

I dont think a decline would be 5% each year, but it could average out to that. Not sure he plays until 39 with how he throws himself around though

- YuenglingJagr


I was using 5% as a linear decline for ease. The decline will likely be slower (or actually increase, or remain level) and faster each season. As long as he stays relatively healthy and wants it, I think he could end up at least 3rd.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 10 @ 9:45 AM ET
So, was looking at Ovechkin's goals. He's 31, and has 544 goals. If he stays healthy, let's say his goal scoring production declines by 5% every year and his production continues for this year and see how his totals look at the end of each season:

2017: 38 (582)
2018: 36 (618)
2019: 34 (652)
2020: 32 (684)
2021: 30 (714)
2022: 28 (742)
2023: 26 (768)
2024: 24 (792)
2025: 22 (814)

This would make him 39 and puts him second all-time to Gretzky. Do you think the numbers are realistic?

- jmatchett383


Buccigross did an analysis a little while back with a scenario where O can pass G.

It's interesting but I don't think he'll do it.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/s...y-career-goals-record-894

Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jan 10 @ 9:45 AM ET
Whos in G tonight..???
- Ur Not Me


I don't think Giroux swings that way.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jan 10 @ 9:46 AM ET
So, was looking at Ovechkin's goals. He's 31, and has 544 goals. If he stays healthy, let's say his goal scoring production declines by 5% every year and his production continues for this year and see how his totals look at the end of each season:

2017: 38 (582)
2018: 36 (618)
2019: 34 (652)
2020: 32 (684)
2021: 30 (714)
2022: 28 (742)
2023: 26 (768)
2024: 24 (792)
2025: 22 (814)

This would make him 39 and puts him second all-time to Gretzky. Do you think the numbers are realistic?

- jmatchett383



This also serves to illustrate how astronomical Gretzky's numbers are compared to everyone else. It is truly mindboggling.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 10 @ 9:47 AM ET
Buccigross did an analysis a little while back with a scenario where O can pass G.
- Scoob


Assuming he gets his 38 this year, he would need 313 more goals to get to 895. If he plays till 40, he'd have to average almost 35 goals per season. I don't know if that's realistic unless he has a few more 50+ seasons soon.
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